B6 1098 · MCO → LGA

departs 5:15 PM ET · arrives 8:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 1098 · MCO → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?