Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 185
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
B6 185 · JFK → RDU
departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 10:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Fri 10/2 66%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5 34%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
8pm departures from JFK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.