Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 2785
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
B6 2785 · JFK → RDU
departs 2:55 PM ET · arrives 4:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 34%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
JFK is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.