Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 2851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
B6 2851 · TPA → SJU
departs 3:01 PM ET · arrives 6:05 PM AT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±4 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.