Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 2851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
B6 2851 · TPA → SJU
departs 2:56 PM ET · arrives 6:01 PM AT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/3 27%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.