Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 483
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
B6 483 · JFK → MCO
departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 8:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Fri 10/2 46%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.