Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
B6 504 · SJU → JFK
departs 6:31 PM AT · arrives 10:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 29%
Wed 10/7 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
SJU is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.