Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1047
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1047 · PHX → MSP
departs 9:42 AM MT · arrives 2:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Fri 10/2 10%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.