Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1169
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1169 · ATL → PHL
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
3pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.40 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.