Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1275
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
DL 1275 · RDU → TPA
departs 6:07 PM ET · arrives 8:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 46%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 18%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at TPA that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
RDU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.36 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.