Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1275
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
DL 1275 · RDU → TPA
departs 6:07 PM ET · arrives 8:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Sat 10/3 28%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Thu 10/8 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
RDU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.30 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.