Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1275
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
DL 1275 · RDU → TPA
departs 6:07 PM ET · arrives 8:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Thu 10/8 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+28 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
15%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +28 pts in 24h
+28 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
15%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.