Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1286 · ATL → JAN
departs 9:15 AM ET · arrives 9:33 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Fri 10/2 6%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at JAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAN?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at JAN that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Arrivals into JAN at that hour are usually not late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
JAN (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.53 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.