Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1286 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

DL 1286 · ATL → JAN

departs 9:40 AM ET · arrives 10:00 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAN?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at JAN that day

↑ 9am departures from ATL are often late

↓ Arrivals into JAN at that hour are usually not late

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.56 in

JAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.71 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1286 · ATL → JAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAN?