Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
DL 1438 · LAX → SJC
departs 4:00 PM PT · arrives 5:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 33%
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.