Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1528
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1528 · JFK → MIA
departs 7:05 AM ET · arrives 10:24 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt
Ceiling 5,333 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt
Ceiling 6,000 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.