Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1533 · MSP → ORD
departs 1:25 PM CT · arrives 3:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Thu 10/1 48%
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±2 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.