Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
DL 1578 · FCA → MSP
departs 6:55 AM MT · arrives 10:30 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave FCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at MSP that day
↑
Other factors
↑
Saturdays in October are usually busier than average
↓
6am departures from FCA are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
FCA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.