Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1641
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
DL 1641 · EWR → MSP
departs 6:15 AM ET · arrives 8:13 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 5%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 5%
Thu 10/8 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.3d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.