Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1701
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
DL 1701 · SMF → MSP
departs 1:19 PM PT · arrives 6:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at MSP that day
↑
Other factors
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
This flight has been late 9% of the time recently
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.