Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2164 · DTW → RDU
departs 10:10 AM ET · arrives 11:52 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/1 9%
Fri 10/2 13%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at RDU that day
↑
Other factors
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.