Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2274
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2274 · PHX → MSP
departs 1:51 PM MT · arrives 7:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Fri 10/2 13%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 24 kt
Ceiling 4,900 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.