Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2404 · LGA → TPA
departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 7:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 55%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 8,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.