Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2683
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2683 · MSP → IAH
departs 6:40 PM CT · arrives 9:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↑
6pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.65 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.