Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
DL 2783 · MSP → RDU
departs 7:00 AM CT · arrives 10:31 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 10%
Mon 10/5 6%
Thu 10/8 6%
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.