Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2843
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2843 · BNA → MSP
departs 4:00 PM CT · arrives 6:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.43 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.