Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2866 · EWR → MSP
departs 5:55 PM ET · arrives 8:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Fri 10/2 40%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.