Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2987
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
DL 2987 · RNO → MSP
departs 6:35 AM PT · arrives 11:49 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at MSP that day
↑
RNO is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 8,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.