Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2990
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2990 · ATL → JAX
departs 2:07 PM ET · arrives 3:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/1 13%
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at ATL that day
↑
Other factors
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.10 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.