Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 873 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

DL 873 · LGA → DFW

departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 11:15 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ DL's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling8,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

DFW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 873 · LGA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?