Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
DL 8783 · PHL → MSP
departs 6:57 PM ET · arrives 8:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.