Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1036 LANDED 3:58 PM ET, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

F9 1036 · DTW → TPA

took off 1:43 PM ET · landed 3:58 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1036 · DTW → TPA

Odds over time