Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1203
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 1203 · PHL → MIA
departs 5:25 PM ET · arrives 8:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 54%
Fri 10/2 54%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 40%
Mon 10/5 41%
Tue 10/6 32%
Wed 10/7 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.