Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1257
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 1257 · TPA → LAS
departs 10:40 PM ET · arrives 12:19 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Fri 10/2 36%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.32 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.