Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 1407 · BUF → ATL
departs 12:28 PM ET · arrives 2:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.