Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
F9 1516 · DTW → BWI
departs 12:50 PM ET · arrives 2:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
12pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.