Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 1516 · DTW → BWI
departs 12:50 PM ET · arrives 2:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
12pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.