Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1601
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 1601 · PHL → LAS
departs 11:06 AM ET · arrives 1:32 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.