Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2506 LANDED 9:03 AM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

F9 2506 · MCO → PHL

took off 6:57 AM ET · landed 9:03 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ MCO is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2506 · MCO → PHL

Odds over time