Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
F9 2506 · MCO → PHL
departs 6:52 AM ET · arrives 9:44 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 7%
Thu 10/8 8%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
3.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
6am departures from MCO are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.38 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.