Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2953 LANDED 9:27 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

F9 2953 · IAD → TPA

took off 7:25 PM ET · landed 9:27 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

No breakdown for this forecast yet.

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.20 in

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 2953 · IAD → TPA

Odds over time