Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3046 LANDED 12:52 PM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

F9 3046 · MSP → ATL

took off 9:49 AM CT · landed 12:52 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±1 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

ATL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3046 · MSP → ATL

Odds over time