Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3054
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 3054 · ATL → TPA
departs 6:11 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Fri 10/2 56%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 34%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
16%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.