Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3223
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 3223 · MSP → DFW
departs 5:09 PM CT · arrives 7:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 67%
Fri 10/2 48%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.