Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4170
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
F9 4170 · MCO → PHL
departs 10:44 AM ET · arrives 1:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 56%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.