Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4753
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4753 · DEN → PHX
departs 10:36 PM MT · arrives 11:32 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.