Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
F9 4781 · PHL → MSY
departs 7:55 AM ET · arrives 9:55 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 37%
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MSY that day
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 1.90 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.