Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4994
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4994 · DFW → MSY
departs 11:51 AM CT · arrives 1:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Fri 10/2 50%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.35 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.