Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3400
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3400 · DFW → AUS
departs 3:24 PM CT · arrives 4:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.61 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.