Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3400
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
MQ 3400 · DFW → AUS
departs 3:16 PM CT · arrives 4:21 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.